Best Time to Trek Manaslu Circuit: The Complete Month-by-Month Guide for 2025

Choosing the right time to trek the Manaslu Circuit is even more critical than for popular routes like Everest Base Camp or Annapurna Circuit. The Larkya La Pass at 5,160m demands stable weather, the remote trail offers limited emergency evacuation options, and the restricted area permit system creates specific timing considerations that don't apply to other Nepal treks.

This comprehensive guide analyzes every month of the year with specific data on Larkya La Pass conditions, village-level temperatures, monsoon patterns unique to the Manaslu region, permit processing timing, and honest assessments of when you should—and absolutely shouldn't—attempt this spectacular trek. Whether you're planning the classic 14-day circuit or adding the sacred Tsum Valley extension, understanding seasonal patterns determines your success, safety, and experience quality.

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Quick Answer: When Should You Trek the Manaslu Circuit?

For most trekkers, the answer is clear: Late September through mid-November (autumn) or mid-April through early May (spring).

These windows offer the essential combination of stable weather, passable Larkya La conditions, open teahouses, and manageable temperatures. But within these seasons, specific timing matters enormously for this remote trek.

| Priority | Best Choice | Why | |----------|-------------|-----| | Best overall conditions | October 10-25 | Optimal Larkya La stability, clear skies, all services open, ideal temperature balance | | Warmest temperatures | Late April-early May | Pre-monsoon warmth, comfortable high-altitude nights, spring blooms | | Fewest crowds | Late September, late November | 60-70% fewer trekkers than October peak, excellent weather | | Best value/budget | March, early December | Lower permit demand, negotiable prices, 20-25% cost savings | | Clearest mountain views | Late October-early November | Post-monsoon air clarity, pristine Manaslu views | | Rhododendron blooms | Late March-April | Lower elevation forests in spectacular bloom | | Cultural festivals | February (Lhosar), October (Dashain) | Tibetan New Year celebrations, monastery ceremonies |

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Understanding Manaslu's Unique Weather Patterns

Before diving into month-by-month analysis, it's essential to understand how Manaslu's weather differs from more popular trekking regions.

Why Manaslu Weather Is Different

Geographic isolation: The Manaslu region sits in a transitional zone between the heavily-monsoon-affected south and the drier trans-Himalayan north. This creates:

• Rain shadow effects in upper valleys (Samdo, near Tibet border)
• Intense monsoon impact in lower Budhi Gandaki gorge
• Unpredictable weather transitions between zones

Larkya La Pass microclimate: At 5,160m, the pass creates its own weather patterns:

• Morning stability window (typically 3:00 AM - 10:00 AM)
• Afternoon cloud buildup from valley heating (11:00 AM onwards)
• Extreme temperature swings (-20°C nights to +10°C sunny afternoons)
• Year-round snow potential even in dry season

Limited weather forecasting: The remote location means:

• No weather stations above Samagaon (3,530m)
• Forecasts rely on regional models, not hyper-local data
• Guide experience and visual observation critical for pass decisions

The Larkya La Pass Weather Window

Understanding the pass crossing window is essential for timing your trek:

Optimal crossing conditions require:

1. Stable high pressure (typically October-November, April-May)
2. Minimal overnight snowfall (rules out winter, late monsoon)
3. Early morning freeze (consolidates snow for safer travel)
4. Visibility above 5km (navigation and safety)
5. Winds below 40 km/h at pass elevation

Critical timing factors:

• Start time: 3:00-4:00 AM from Dharamsala (essential to beat weather changes)
• Weather window: 6-8 hours of stable conditions needed
• Turnaround time: If not at pass by 11:00 AM, conditions typically deteriorate
• Alternative plan: Must have 2-3 buffer days in case of closure

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Month-by-Month Breakdown: Complete Weather Data

The following analysis covers conditions across four key altitude zones in the Manaslu region:

• Machha Khola (870m): Lower valley, trek start
• Samagaon (3,530m): Acclimatization base, upper valley
• Dharamsala (4,460m): Pre-pass camp
• Larkya La Pass (5,160m): High pass conditions

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Autumn Season Deep Dive: September to November

Autumn is universally acknowledged as the premier Manaslu Circuit season. Post-monsoon stability, crystal-clear air, and established trail conditions make this the definitive window. But each autumn month offers distinct characteristics.

September: Post-Monsoon Emergence

September represents the transition from monsoon chaos to trekking paradise. Timing within the month is critical—early September can still be dangerously wet; late September approaches October's excellence.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 24-26°C | 14-16°C | Still warm and humid | | Samagaon (3,530m) | 10-13°C | -2 to 2°C | Comfortable days, cool nights | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | 6-9°C | -8 to -4°C | Cold nights, manageable days | | Larkya La (5,160m) | 2-6°C | -12 to -6°C | Improving conditions throughout month |

September Conditions:

• Precipitation: Moderate-high early month (100-150mm in first two weeks), dropping to 30-50mm late month
• Visibility: Poor to moderate early September; excellent late September after final monsoon clearing
• Trail conditions: Muddy and slippery in lower elevations early month; excellent by September 20+
• Larkya La Pass: Possible fresh snow early month; generally stable after September 15
• Crowd levels: Low early month, building steadily, moderate by month end
• Teahouse availability: All lodges reopening throughout month; fully operational by mid-September

Early September (Sept 1-15): Risky Period

The monsoon hasn't fully released its grip. Expect:

• Afternoon thunderstorms in lower valleys
• Swollen rivers, dangerous crossings possible
• Muddy, slippery trails throughout
• Leeches below 3,000m (bring salt or leech socks)
• Limited visibility—mountains often cloud-obscured
• Occasional pass closures from fresh snow
• Some teahouses still closed or limited services

Late September (Sept 16-30): The Hidden Gem

By the third week, conditions transform dramatically:

• Monsoon definitively ended, stable weather patterns
• Fresh snow dusts high peaks—spectacular photography
• Trails cleaned and dried
• Excellent visibility emerging
• Significantly fewer trekkers than October (60-70% less)
• All teahouses fully operational
• Better lodge availability than peak season
• Warmer than October-November

Pros:

• Fewer crowds than peak October—you may have trails and lodges largely to yourself
• Fresh post-monsoon snow creates stunning peak views
• Lush vegetation from summer rains (lower elevations verdant)
• Pleasant temperatures—not as cold as late autumn
• Better prices and easier bookings than October
• The landscape feels "renewed" after monsoon cleansing
• Excellent wildlife viewing (animals more active)

Cons:

• Early September still risky—monsoon remnants possible
• Some trail sections may retain mud or damage from monsoon
• Leeches still present at lower elevations in early month
• Pass conditions less predictable than October
• Some fresh snow on Larkya La requiring caution
• Weather forecasting less reliable than peak season

Verdict: Highly Recommended for late September (Sept 15-30). This may be the most underrated period for Manaslu—offering near-October conditions with half the crowds. Avoid early September unless you have exceptional weather flexibility and don't mind potential delays.

October: Peak Season Excellence—The Gold Standard

October is unquestionably the most popular month for Manaslu Circuit trekking. Weather conditions reach their most stable, visibility peaks, and the entire infrastructure operates at full capacity. The October 10-25 window is particularly prized.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 22-24°C | 12-14°C | Pleasant, comfortable | | Samagaon (3,530m) | 8-10°C | -6 to -2°C | Cool but manageable | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | 4-6°C | -12 to -8°C | Cold nights, proper gear essential | | Larkya La (5,160m) | 0-4°C | -16 to -12°C | Freezing but predictable |

October Conditions:

• Precipitation: Very low—typically 25-40mm for entire month, mostly brief afternoon clouds
• Visibility: Exceptional—100+ km views common, best of the year
• Trail conditions: Excellent—dry, well-maintained, all routes fully accessible
• Larkya La Pass: Optimal conditions, especially Oct 10-25 window
• Crowd levels: High—peak season, especially during Dashain festival (dates vary)
• Teahouse availability: All lodges fully booked at popular stops; advance booking critical

The October 10-25 Sweet Spot

This 15-day window represents the absolute pinnacle for Manaslu Circuit conditions:

Why this specific window:

1. Weather stability peaks: High-pressure systems most established
2. Pass conditions optimal: Snow consolidated but not excessive
3. Temperature balance: Cold but not extreme; workable for most trekkers
4. Visibility maximum: Post-monsoon air at clearest
5. Services fully operational: All teahouses, guides, porters available
6. Dashain crowds subsiding: Major festival typically early October; crowds thin mid-month

Daily weather patterns in this window:

• 3:00-6:00 AM: Crystal clear, calm, freezing temperatures (-15°C to -10°C at Dharamsala)
• 6:00-10:00 AM: Warming begins, excellent visibility, optimal trekking
• 10:00 AM-2:00 PM: Peak warmth, continued clear skies, comfortable trekking
• 2:00-6:00 PM: Slight afternoon cloud buildup possible, cooling rapidly
• 6:00 PM-3:00 AM: Clear, freezing, spectacular star visibility

Pass crossing success rate in October 10-25: 95%+ (weather-related closures extremely rare)

Dashain Festival Impact

Nepal's biggest festival, Dashain, typically falls in early-to-mid October (2025: approximately October 2-15). This creates unique dynamics:

During Dashain (roughly Oct 1-15):

• Domestic tourism surge: Nepali trekkers join international visitors
• Festive atmosphere: Villages celebrate, monasteries hold special ceremonies
• Crowding: Peak congestion period, lodges fully booked months ahead
• Cultural opportunity: Witness authentic Nepali celebrations on trail
• Guide availability: Some guides return to families for festival

Post-Dashain (Oct 15-25):

• Crowd reduction: 30-40% fewer trekkers after festival ends
• Weather maintains: Conditions remain excellent
• Easier bookings: Better lodge availability
• Guide enthusiasm: Guides return refreshed after family time

Pros:

• Best visibility of the entire year—crystal-clear Manaslu views
• Most stable weather patterns—minimal precipitation risk
• Larkya La Pass at optimal crossable conditions
• All services fully operational—maximum support
• Comfortable daytime temperatures throughout route
• Perfect photography conditions—dramatic lighting, clear air
• Cultural immersion during Dashain period
• Highest success rate for completing circuit

Cons:

• Very crowded—especially during Dashain festival period
• Premium pricing—highest costs of the year
• Advance booking essential—lodges book out 2-3 months ahead
• Restricted permit demand high—apply early
• Popular viewpoints and teahouses can feel congested
• Cold nights at high elevations (though manageable)
• Less solitude and remote atmosphere

Verdict: Highly Recommended for all trekkers, especially those prioritizing weather reliability over solitude. If crowds concern you, target October 15-25 to avoid peak Dashain period. Book permits, guides, and key lodges 3-4 months in advance for October departures.

November: Excellent Conditions with Cooling Temperatures

November maintains October's weather stability while temperatures drop noticeably. Early-to-mid November offers outstanding conditions; late November becomes genuinely cold and sees lodge closures.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 18-22°C | 8-12°C | Cooling but pleasant | | Samagaon (3,530m) | 4-8°C | -10 to -6°C | Noticeably colder than October | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | 0-4°C | -16 to -12°C | Very cold nights | | Larkya La (5,160m) | -4 to 0°C | -22 to -16°C | Extreme cold, proper gear critical |

November Conditions:

• Precipitation: Very low—driest month of year, typically 10-20mm total
• Visibility: Excellent—continuing post-monsoon clarity, possibly clearer than October
• Trail conditions: Excellent early-mid month; ice formation possible late November
• Larkya La Pass: Good conditions first two weeks; increasing snow/cold late month
• Crowd levels: High early November, moderate mid-month, low late November
• Teahouse availability: Full services through Nov 20; closures beginning after Nov 20

Early November (Nov 1-10): Post-Dashain Excellence

Conditions remain nearly identical to late October:

• Exceptional visibility and weather stability
• Crowds thinning significantly (40-50% less than peak October)
• All services still fully operational
• Better lodge availability—easier to book
• Still manageable temperatures
• Excellent pass conditions

Mid-November (Nov 11-20): The Insider's Window

Many experienced Manaslu trekkers consider this the best period:

• Outstanding weather—stable, clear, dry
• Dramatically fewer crowds (60% less than October)
• Still-operational teahouses (though some may close after Nov 15)
• Pristine conditions—trails less worn, cleaner camps
• Better prices than peak season
• Crystal-clear air for photography
• Tradeoff: Significantly colder, especially nights

Late November (Nov 21-30): Challenging Cold

Conditions become demanding:

• Extreme cold—approaching winter temperatures
• Some teahouses above Samagaon closing
• Larkya La Pass increasingly difficult (deep cold, possible fresh snow)
• Short daylight hours (sunrise ~6:30 AM, sunset ~5:00 PM)
• Ice forming on trails above 4,000m
• Only for experienced cold-weather trekkers

Pros:

• Exceptional visibility—among the clearest of the year
• Significantly fewer crowds than October (especially after Nov 10)
• Very stable weather through mid-month
• Better prices and lodge availability
• Pristine, crisp mountain air
• Spectacular star visibility in dry, clear conditions
• Longer trekking hours with early starts possible

Cons:

• Noticeably colder than October—especially nights
• Late November very challenging (extreme cold)
• Some high-altitude lodges closing after Nov 20
• Shorter daylight hours than autumn peak
• Cold can be brutal at Dharamsala and pass (-20°C+)
• Risk of early winter storms late month
• Limited emergency evacuation options if weather turns

Verdict: Highly Recommended for early-to-mid November (Nov 1-20). Many experienced trekkers consider November 10-20 the ideal Manaslu window: October-quality weather with significantly fewer crowds and better pricing. Late November (after Nov 20) is only for experienced cold-weather trekkers with proper winter gear.

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Spring Season Deep Dive: March to May

Spring is the second prime window for Manaslu Circuit, offering warming temperatures, blooming lower-elevation forests, and generally excellent conditions. Spring weather is slightly less stable than autumn but warmer and more comfortable for those sensitive to cold.

March: Spring Awakening

March marks winter's end and spring's tentative beginning. Early March can still feel quite wintry at altitude; late March offers increasingly spring-like conditions.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 18-22°C | 8-10°C | Pleasant, warming | | Samagaon (3,530m) | 4-7°C | -12 to -8°C | Cold but improving | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | 0-3°C | -18 to -14°C | Very cold, winter gear needed | | Larkya La (5,160m) | -6 to -2°C | -24 to -18°C | Extreme cold, winter conditions |

March Conditions:

• Precipitation: Low to moderate—35-50mm, occasional snow at altitude
• Visibility: Good to very good; occasional haze from valley fires
• Trail conditions: Generally clear; possible lingering snow above 4,500m
• Larkya La Pass: Clearing of winter snow throughout month; best late March
• Crowd levels: Low early month, building to moderate late month
• Teahouse availability: Most lodges opening throughout March; fully operational by late month

Early March (Mar 1-15): Late Winter

Conditions are challenging:

• Still very cold—winter temperatures persist
• Possible lingering snow on Larkya La from winter accumulation
• Some teahouses may still be closed or limited service
• Shorter days than later spring
• Increased risk of winter storms early month
• Better suited for experienced cold-weather trekkers

Late March (Mar 16-31): True Spring Emerges

Dramatic improvement:

• Warming temperatures—comfortable days
• Snow clearing from pass
• Rhododendron forests blooming at lower elevations (below 3,000m)
• All teahouses operational
• Good weather stability
• Significantly fewer trekkers than April-May

Pros:

• Fewer crowds than April-May (50-60% less)
• Good weather stability improving through month
• Rhododendron blooms spectacular at lower elevations
• Better prices and easier bookings than peak spring
• Longer daylight hours than autumn
• Fresh snow often on high peaks (beautiful views)
• Good value for budget-conscious trekkers

Cons:

• Colder than April-May, especially early March
• Some lingering winter snow possible
• Haze from agricultural burning can reduce distant visibility
• Some teahouses may have limited services early month
• Weather less predictable than October-November
• Pass conditions can vary—check recent reports

Verdict: Recommended for late March (Mar 15-31). Excellent shoulder season option for those comfortable with cooler temperatures. Early March is possible but challenging—only for experienced trekkers prepared for cold. Late March offers outstanding value and beautiful spring conditions with minimal crowds.

April: Peak Spring—The Sweet Spot

April represents spring trekking at its finest. Temperatures warm nicely, the landscape blooms, and conditions are generally excellent throughout the month. This is spring's equivalent to autumn's October.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 22-26°C | 10-14°C | Warm, comfortable | | Samagaon (3,530m) | 8-11°C | -6 to -2°C | Pleasant days, manageable nights | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | 3-6°C | -12 to -8°C | Cold but bearable | | Larkya La (5,160m) | -2 to 2°C | -18 to -12°C | Freezing but stable |

April Conditions:

• Precipitation: Moderate—60-80mm, mostly afternoon showers
• Visibility: Very good mornings; afternoon clouds common
• Trail conditions: Excellent—snow cleared, trails dry and accessible
• Larkya La Pass: Excellent conditions throughout month
• Crowd levels: Moderate-high, increasing through month
• Teahouse availability: All lodges fully operational; popular stops require booking

Early April (Apr 1-15): Optimal Spring

Conditions are outstanding:

• Comfortable temperatures throughout route
• Stable weather patterns
• Pass conditions excellent
• Spring flowers blooming at mid-elevations
• Moderate crowds—not overwhelming
• All services fully operational

Late April (Apr 16-30): Warmest Comfort

Peak spring warmth:

• Warmest trekking temperatures of spring
• Most comfortable high-altitude nights
• Increasing afternoon cloud buildup
• More trekkers but still manageable
• Excellent acclimatization weather
• Spring blooms at higher elevations

Pros:

• Comfortable temperatures—ideal for those who dislike extreme cold
• Stable weather patterns most of the month
• Excellent Larkya La Pass conditions
• Rhododendron blooms at higher elevations than March
• All services fully operational
• Good visibility, especially mornings
• Comfortable for first-time high-altitude trekkers
• Warmer than autumn equivalents

Cons:

• Afternoon cloud buildup common (blocks peak views)
• More precipitation than autumn months
• Crowds increasing, especially late April
• Higher prices than March
• Pre-monsoon haze can reduce distant clarity
• Afternoon thunderstorms possible (usually brief)
• Busier lodges than shoulder seasons

Verdict: Highly Recommended for all trekkers, especially those prioritizing warmth and comfort. April offers the best balance of excellent weather and manageable temperatures. Late April (Apr 20-30) is particularly ideal for those who want warmth without extreme pre-monsoon instability. Book 2-3 months ahead for April.

May: Pre-Monsoon Warmth

May offers the warmest trekking temperatures but with increasing afternoon cloudiness and the approaching monsoon. Early May is excellent; late May becomes risky as pre-monsoon weather destabilizes.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 24-28°C | 14-16°C | Hot in direct sun | | Samagaon (3,530m) | 10-14°C | -4 to 0°C | Warmest high-altitude days | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | 5-8°C | -8 to -4°C | Comfortable nights | | Larkya La (5,160m) | 0-4°C | -14 to -8°C | Warmest pass conditions |

May Conditions:

• Precipitation: Moderate to high—90-120mm, increasing through month
• Visibility: Good mornings; significant afternoon cloud buildup
• Trail conditions: Excellent—warmest and driest underfoot
• Larkya La Pass: Good early May; deteriorating late May
• Crowd levels: Moderate early May, decreasing late May
• Teahouse availability: Fully operational early May; some closures late May anticipating monsoon

Early May (May 1-15): Pre-Monsoon Prime

Excellent conditions persist:

• Warmest temperatures of trekking season
• Most comfortable high-altitude nights
• Still-stable weather patterns
• Pass conditions remain good
• Crowds moderate—not overwhelming
• Full services available

Late May (May 16-31): Monsoon Approaching

Conditions deteriorate:

• Increasing afternoon clouds and showers
• Pre-monsoon thunderstorms possible
• Visibility reduced by haze and humidity
• Pass conditions less reliable
• Early monsoon weather possible last week
• Some teahouses begin closing

Pros:

• Warmest temperatures of the year—comfortable throughout
• Most pleasant high-altitude nights (minimal cold stress)
• Less snow/ice concerns on pass
• Comfortable for cold-sensitive trekkers
• Spring flowers at highest elevations
• Good early-month conditions
• Fewer crowds late May

Cons:

• Afternoon clouds reduce visibility significantly
• Increasing precipitation, especially late May
• Pre-monsoon haze reduces distant clarity
• Thunderstorms possible, especially afternoons
• Hot at lower elevations (uncomfortable)
• Late May very risky—early monsoon possible
• Some lodge closures late month

Verdict: Recommended for early May (May 1-15) with caveats. Best for those prioritizing warmth and comfortable high-altitude nights. Late May (after May 15) is risky—monsoon can arrive early, creating dangerous conditions. Only trek late May if you have complete schedule flexibility and can turn back if weather deteriorates.

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Winter Trekking: December to February

Winter trekking on the Manaslu Circuit is possible but demands serious preparation, expedition-grade gear, and acceptance of harsh conditions. For experienced cold-weather mountaineers, winter offers unique rewards. For most trekkers, winter is inadvisable.

December: Early Winter

December sees dramatic temperature drops and increasing snowfall. Early December can offer reasonable conditions; late December becomes genuinely dangerous for the pass crossing.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 14-18°C | 4-8°C | Cool but manageable | | Samagaon (3,530m) | 2-5°C | -14 to -10°C | Very cold | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | -2 to 2°C | -22 to -18°C | Extreme cold | | Larkya La (5,160m) | -8 to -4°C | -28 to -22°C | Life-threatening cold |

December Conditions:

• Precipitation: Low—15-25mm, but mostly as snow above 3,500m
• Visibility: Generally excellent when not snowing
• Trail conditions: Variable—ice common above 4,000m, snow accumulation increasing
• Larkya La Pass: Possible early month; increasingly difficult; often impassable late month
• Crowd levels: Very low—you may be alone on entire route
• Teahouse availability: Reducing rapidly; many close by mid-December

Early December (Dec 1-15): Barely Feasible

Challenging but possible for experienced trekkers:

• Extreme cold but clear skies often
• Pass still crossable in good weather windows
• Some teahouses operational
• Complete solitude—empty trails
• Very low prices
• High risk of weather delays

Late December (Dec 16-31): Not Recommended

Conditions become dangerous:

• Heavy snow possible, closing pass
• Extreme cold (-25°C+ at Dharamsala)
• Most teahouses closed above Samagaon
• Very short daylight (6:30 AM - 5:00 PM)
• High probability of being stuck waiting for pass to clear
• Emergency evacuation extremely difficult

Key Considerations:

• Extreme cold at altitude: Nights at Dharamsala regularly -20°C to -25°C
• Expedition gear mandatory: -30°C sleeping bag, insulated boots, expedition down jacket
• Pass crossing uncertain: May wait 3-5+ days for weather window
• Lodge closures: Limited accommodation options above Namrung
• Frostbite risk: Serious concern on pass day
• Flexible schedule essential: Must have buffer days for weather delays

Who Should Consider December:

• Experienced winter mountaineers only
• Those with expedition-grade cold-weather equipment
• Trekkers seeking absolute solitude
• Budget-conscious adventurers (20-25% lower costs)
• Those with fully flexible schedules (no fixed return flights)

Verdict: Not Recommended for most trekkers. Early December is barely feasible for experienced cold-weather trekkers; late December is dangerous and inadvisable. If you do trek December, go with a highly experienced guide, bring full expedition gear, and maintain complete schedule flexibility.

January: Deep Winter—Extreme Conditions

January represents the harshest month in the Manaslu region. Temperatures reach their annual minimum, snow accumulation peaks, and the Larkya La Pass is frequently impassable. This is true winter mountaineering territory.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 12-16°C | 2-6°C | Cold but tolerable | | Samagaon (3,530m) | -2 to 2°C | -18 to -14°C | Extreme cold | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | -6 to -2°C | -28 to -22°C | Life-threatening | | Larkya La (5,160m) | -12 to -8°C | -35 to -28°C | Polar conditions |

January Conditions:

• Precipitation: Low—15-20mm, but as snow; accumulation significant
• Visibility: Excellent when not snowing; some of clearest air of year
• Trail conditions: Heavy snow and ice above 3,500m; pass often impassable
• Larkya La Pass: Impassable most of January due to deep snow and extreme cold
• Crowd levels: Essentially zero—almost no trekkers
• Teahouse availability: Minimal—most lodges closed above Namrung; some even in Samagaon

Extreme Cold Preparation:

At Dharamsala and Larkya La in January, expect nighttime temperatures of -25°C to -30°C. Your sleeping bag rating should be -30°C or colder. Frostbite can occur within minutes on exposed skin. This is not an exaggeration.

Required Winter Gear:

• Sleeping bag rated to -30°C or colder (expedition grade)
• 8,000m-grade down jacket
• Insulated mountaineering boots rated to -40°C
• Balaclava, expedition mittens, liner gloves
• Multiple insulation layers (fleece, down, synthetic)
• Insulated water bottle covers (water freezes solid in minutes)
• Hand and toe warmers (chemical heat packs)
• Vapor barrier liners for sleeping bag
• Four-season tent (teahouse backup)
• Satellite communication device

Reality Check:

• Pass crossing: Success rate below 20% in January due to snow depth, extreme cold, and weather instability
• Teahouse services: Most lodges above Samagaon closed; you may need camping equipment
• Emergency evacuation: Essentially impossible in poor weather; helicopter rescues uncertain
• Guide availability: Very few guides willing to trek January; those who do charge premium rates
• Physical danger: Frostbite, hypothermia, and avalanche risks are very real

Verdict: Strongly Not Recommended. January Manaslu Circuit is mountaineering, not trekking. Unless you have significant winter expedition experience, proper extreme-cold equipment, and can accept high probability of pass closure (requiring return via same route or helicopter exit), do not attempt Manaslu in January. This is not suitable for recreational trekking.

February: Late Winter Transition

February sees temperatures slowly improving, especially in the second half. Conditions remain very challenging but slightly more manageable than January. The Lhosar festival (Tibetan New Year) adds cultural interest.

Temperature Ranges:

| Altitude | Daytime High | Nighttime Low | Notes | |----------|--------------|---------------|-------| | Machha Khola (870m) | 14-18°C | 4-8°C | Improving | | Samagaon (3,530m) | 0-4°C | -16 to -12°C | Still very cold | | Dharamsala (4,460m) | -4 to 0°C | -24 to -18°C | Extreme cold persists | | Larkya La (5,160m) | -10 to -6°C | -30 to -24°C | Brutal conditions |

February Conditions:

• Precipitation: Low—20-25mm, mostly snow, slightly more than January
• Visibility: Generally excellent; slight haze increasing toward month end
• Trail conditions: Heavy snow above 4,000m; improving very slowly
• Larkya La Pass: Still very difficult; possible late February in good years
• Crowd levels: Very low; marginally more than January
• Teahouse availability: Slowly reopening; more options than January but still limited

Lhosar Festival (Tibetan New Year)

February's highlight is Lhosar, Tibetan New Year, celebrated in Manaslu's upper Tibetan villages (Samagaon, Samdo, Lho). Dates vary by lunar calendar (2025: approximately February 19-21).

Lhosar experiences:

• Monastery ceremonies and ritual dances
• Traditional foods and chang (local beer) offerings
• Colorful prayer flag installations
• Genuine cultural immersion (not tourist-focused)
• Homestay opportunities with local families
• Challenge: Coincides with cold season; teahouse availability limited

Late February Advantage:

The last week of February begins showing spring hints:

• Temperatures warming gradually
• Snow melting at lower elevations
• More teahouses reopening
• Increasing daylight
• Pass conditions improving (though still difficult)

Verdict: Not Recommended for most trekkers. Late February is possible for experienced cold-weather mountaineers with proper equipment. Lhosar festival period offers unique cultural rewards but demands acceptance of winter conditions. Only attempt if you have winter expedition experience and complete flexibility for weather delays.

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Monsoon Season: June to August—The Danger Period

The monsoon season (June-August) is extremely dangerous and strongly not recommended for Manaslu Circuit trekking. Unlike some Nepal regions with partial rain shadow protection, Manaslu receives full monsoon precipitation with severe consequences.

Why Monsoon Is So Dangerous on Manaslu

June: Monsoon Arrival

The monsoon arrives in the Manaslu region typically June 1-10, transforming conditions from manageable to hazardous within days.

Specific Manaslu monsoon dangers:

1. Budhi Gandaki gorge: The lower valley becomes a death trap

   • Swollen river with massive flow increases
   • Landslides from unstable gorge walls
   • Trail sections washed away regularly
   • Suspension bridges can be damaged or destroyed
   • Rescue nearly impossible in gorge during heavy rain

2. Larkya La Pass: Becomes impassable and deadly

   • Daily afternoon snowfall above 4,500m
   • Wet snow creates avalanche conditions
   • Zero visibility most days
   • Hypothermia risk extreme in wet conditions
   • Crevasse and serac dangers increase

3. Trail erosion: Monsoon destroys trail sections annually

   • New landslide zones each season
   • Stream crossings become raging torrents
   • Mudslides can trap trekkers
   • Emergency evacuation routes cut off

July & August: Peak Monsoon

Conditions worsen through July and August:

• Daily rainfall: 200-350mm monthly at lower elevations
• Constant clouds: Mountain views 0-5% of time
• Leeches: Abundant and aggressive below 3,000m
• Landslides: Near-daily occurrence in gorge sections
• Health risks: Fungal infections, waterborne illness
• Lodges closed: Many teahouses close during peak monsoon
• Trail impassable: Sections may be completely washed out

Monsoon Conditions Table:

| Factor | Impact on Manaslu Circuit | |--------|---------------------------| | Daily rain | Lower valleys: 4-8 hours daily; Upper valleys: 2-4 hours | | River levels | Budhi Gandaki: 200-300% normal flow; crossings dangerous/impossible | | Visibility | Mountains obscured 90-95% of time; no views | | Larkya La | Wet snow daily; avalanche danger extreme; impassable most days | | Leeches | Abundant below 3,000m; attach through socks and gaiters | | Landslides | Near-daily in gorge; trail blockages common | | Teahouses | 40-60% closed; remaining open with limited services | | Helicopter evacuation | Highly uncertain; weather grounds flights for days |

For the Absolutely Determined: Monsoon Realities

If you absolutely must trek during monsoon (job constraints, visa limitations, etc.), understand these realities:

What to expect:

• No mountain views: Accept you'll see peaks 0-10% of the time
• Constant wetness: Everything stays damp; fungal issues common
• Slow progress: Delays from weather, trail damage, river crossings
• Pass closure: High probability of being unable to cross Larkya La
• Potential turn-back: May need to exit via same route or helicopter
• Leeches: They will attach to you below 3,000m—bring salt, leech socks

Essential monsoon gear:

• Waterproof everything—pack covers, dry bags, waterproof jacket and pants
• Leech protection—salt, leech socks, long gaiters
• Extra clothing—things don't dry
• Waterproof boots with ankle support
• Comprehensive first aid—treat cuts immediately (infection risk)

Verdict: Strongly Not Recommended. Monsoon Manaslu is dangerous, unpleasant, and offers minimal reward. You'll see no mountains, face daily hazards, and may not complete the circuit. Postpone your trek to autumn or spring. If absolutely forced to trek monsoon, consider alternative regions with rain shadow protection (Upper Mustang, Upper Dolpo) instead.

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Larkya La Pass: Detailed Seasonal Analysis

The Larkya La Pass (5,160m) crossing represents the physical and emotional climax of the Manaslu Circuit. Pass conditions vary dramatically by season and determine trek success. Here's the complete seasonal breakdown:

Pass Conditions by Season

October 10-25 (Peak Optimal):

• Success rate: 95%+
• Typical conditions: Cold (-15°C to -10°C at night), clear, stable, minimal wind
• Snow depth: Light to moderate, well-consolidated
• Visibility: Excellent—100+ km views
• Crossing time: 8-10 hours (typical)
• Hazards: Minimal—standard altitude concerns
• Recommendation: Ideal for all fitness levels attempting the circuit

Late September & Early November (Excellent):

• Success rate: 90%+
• Typical conditions: Very cold (Nov) or moderate (Sept), generally stable
• Snow depth: Moderate, generally well-consolidated
• Visibility: Excellent
• Crossing time: 8-10 hours
• Hazards: Increased cold (November); possible fresh snow (September)
• Recommendation: Excellent for experienced trekkers

April & Early May (Very Good):

• Success rate: 85-90%
• Typical conditions: Cold but manageable, afternoon clouds common
• Snow depth: Moderate, warming but stable
• Visibility: Very good mornings; clouds build afternoons
• Crossing time: 8-10 hours
• Hazards: Afternoon weather changes; wet snow possible
• Recommendation: Very good for all trekkers; start early

March & Late May (Good with Caution):

• Success rate: 75-80%
• Typical conditions: Cold (March) or variable (May), less predictable
• Snow depth: Heavy (March) or wet (May)
• Visibility: Variable; weather less stable
• Crossing time: 8-12 hours (potentially longer)
• Hazards: Unstable snow (May); extreme cold (March); weather variability
• Recommendation: Good for experienced trekkers with flexibility

Early December & Late February (Difficult):

• Success rate: 50-60%
• Typical conditions: Extreme cold, increasing snow, less stable
• Snow depth: Heavy and increasing
• Visibility: Variable; storms possible
• Crossing time: 10-14 hours (very challenging)
• Hazards: Extreme cold (-25°C+); deep snow; frostbite risk
• Recommendation: Only for experienced winter mountaineers

January & Late December (Extremely Difficult/Impassable):

• Success rate: 10-20%
• Typical conditions: Extreme cold (-30°C), heavy snow, storms frequent
• Snow depth: Very heavy; often impassable
• Visibility: Poor to zero during storms
• Crossing time: Potentially impossible
• Hazards: Life-threatening cold; avalanche danger; deep snow
• Recommendation: Not recommended; pass often closed

June-August (Impassable/Deadly):

• Success rate: <5%
• Typical conditions: Wet snow, avalanche conditions, zero visibility
• Snow depth: Heavy wet snow; unstable
• Visibility: Zero most days
• Crossing time: Impossible most days
• Hazards: Avalanches, hypothermia in wet conditions, zero rescue options
• Recommendation: Do not attempt under any circumstances

Pass Crossing Success Strategies

Essential timing:

1. Start time: 3:00-4:00 AM from Dharamsala (non-negotiable)
2. Breakfast: 2:00 AM (light, warm)
3. Gear check: 2:30 AM (headlamp, layers, microspikes)
4. Departure: 3:00-3:30 AM (adjust for group size)
5. Reach pass: 9:00-11:00 AM target
6. Clear pass: By noon (weather deteriorates afternoon)
7. Reach Bhimtang: 1:00-3:00 PM

Weather decision points:

• Evening before: Guide checks sky, pressure, local knowledge
• 2:00 AM: Final weather check before breakfast
• Departure: Continuous sky observation for storm signs
• Mid-ascent: Turn-back decision if conditions deteriorating
• At pass: Quick summit, photos, then descend (don't linger)

Turnaround rules:

• If not at pass by 11:00 AM, consider turning back
• Any altitude sickness symptoms = immediate descent
• Severe weather (wind, snow, zero visibility) = turn back
• Guide's decision is final—no arguments

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Crowd Patterns: Planning Around Peak Periods

Understanding crowd patterns helps optimize timing for your preferences—whether you enjoy social atmospheres or prefer solitude on remote trails.

Crowd Density by Period

| Period | Crowd Level | Daily Trekkers | Notes | |--------|-------------|----------------|-------| | January 1-31 | Very Low | 5-15 | Extreme cold, pass often closed, most lodges closed | | February 1-28 | Very Low | 10-25 | Lhosar festival attracts some, still very cold | | March 1-15 | Low | 30-50 | Early spring arrivals, building slowly | | March 16-31 | Low-Moderate | 60-100 | Spring season establishing | | April 1-15 | Moderate | 120-180 | Prime spring, steady traffic | | April 16-30 | Moderate-High | 150-220 | Peak spring approaching | | May 1-15 | Moderate | 100-150 | Good conditions, pre-monsoon | | May 16-31 | Low | 40-80 | Monsoon approaching, trekkers decreasing | | June-August | Very Low | 10-30 | Monsoon—only delayed/determined trekkers | | September 1-15 | Low-Moderate | 50-100 | Post-monsoon building | | September 16-30 | Moderate-High | 150-250 | Prime season establishing | | October 1-10 | Very High | 300-500 | Dashain peak—busiest period | | October 11-25 | High | 250-400 | Peak season continuing | | October 26-31 | Moderate-High | 150-250 | Post-Dashain reduction | | November 1-10 | High | 200-300 | Excellent conditions, high traffic | | November 11-20 | Moderate | 120-200 | Thinning crowds, still good | | November 21-30 | Low | 60-100 | Late season, cold, lodge closures | | December 1-15 | Low | 40-70 | Early winter, decreasing | | December 16-31 | Very Low | 15-40 | Holiday closures, extreme cold |

Strategies for Different Preferences

If You Hate Crowds:

• Best months: Late September, late November, March
• Avoid: October 1-25 (especially Dashain period)
• Strategy: Trek shoulder seasons or late autumn
• Benefits: Empty trails, easier lodge booking, more intimate experience
• Tradeoffs: Colder (late season) or less stable weather (early season)

If You Enjoy Social Atmosphere:

• Best months: October, early November, April
• Peak social periods: Dashain festival (early October)
• Benefits: Full teahouses, meeting other trekkers, evening conversations
• Note: "Crowded" on Manaslu means 100-200 trekkers starting daily—not city-level crowds

If Budget Is Priority:

• Best months: March, early December, late November
• Negotiation possible: Guide/porter rates, lodge prices (though rates increasingly standardized)
• Savings: 20-25% on agency costs; lower food/lodge prices
• Tradeoffs: Colder conditions (winter), reduced services

If You Want Balance:

• Best months: Late September, late April, mid-November
• Why: Good weather, moderate crowds, reasonable prices
• Sweet spot: September 20-30 or November 11-20

Crowd Management Tips

1. Book ahead: Popular teahouses (Samagaon, Samdo) fill early in peak season
2. Start early: Depart lodges by 7:00 AM to walk in quiet
3. Choose alternative lodges: Skip the most popular properties
4. Trek off-peak: Shoulder seasons offer 60% fewer people
5. Add Tsum Valley: Extension sees far fewer trekkers
6. Flexible itinerary: Adjust daily stops to avoid large groups

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Permit Timing & Processing: Critical Deadlines

The Manaslu Restricted Area Permit system creates specific timing considerations that don't apply to other Nepal treks. Understanding permit processing timelines is essential for successful trip planning.

Permit Processing Timelines

Standard timeline (non-peak season):

• Application submission: 4-6 weeks before trek start
• Processing time: 7-14 days
• Collection: 2-3 days before departure
• Total lead time: 6-8 weeks recommended

Peak season timeline (October):

• Application submission: 8-10 weeks before trek start
• Processing time: 10-21 days (higher volume)
• Potential delays: Dashain festival closures
• Total lead time: 10-12 weeks essential

Last-minute timeline (risky):

• Absolute minimum: 3 weeks
• Success rate: 70-80% (not guaranteed)
• Premium fees: Possible for expedited processing
• Risk: May not receive permits in time

Seasonal Permit Considerations

October Dashain Period:

• Government offices closed: Typically 3-7 days during festival
• Delayed processing: Applications submitted late September may face delays
• Solution: Submit by mid-August for October treks
• Alternative: Arrive Kathmandu early, allow buffer time

December-February:

• Lower demand: Processing typically faster
• Office availability: May have reduced hours around Nepali holidays
• Advantage: Easier to get last-minute permits

Permit Cost by Season:

| Season | RAP Cost (per week) | Notes | |--------|---------------------|-------| | Sept-Nov | $100/week | Peak season rate | | Dec-Feb | $75/week | Off-season rate | | Mar-May | $100/week | Peak season rate | | Jun-Aug | $75/week | Off-season rate (though trekking not recommended) |

Total permit costs:

• Restricted Area Permit: $150-200 (most treks require 2 weeks)
• MCAP: ~$22
• TIMS: Free (as of 2024)
• ACAP (if exiting via Dharapani): ~$22
• Total: $180-250

Permit Application Process

Requirements:

1. Registered agency: Must book through official trekking company
2. Licensed guide: Mandatory for restricted area
3. Minimum 2 trekkers: Solo travelers paired by agencies or pay supplement
4. Passport copies: Valid for 6+ months
5. Travel insurance: Proof required
6. Itinerary: Detailed route plan

Documents needed:

• Passport copy (photo page)
• 2 passport photos
• Travel insurance certificate
• Agency booking confirmation
• Guide license copy
• Detailed itinerary with dates

Application location:

• Nepal Immigration Office (Kalikasthan, Kathmandu)
• Processed only in Kathmandu (not Pokhara)
• Cannot be obtained at trailhead

Permit Checkpoints on Route

Your permits will be verified at:

1. Jagat (1,340m): Entering restricted area—first checkpoint
2. Philim: Secondary check (sometimes)
3. Namrung (2,630m): Upper restricted zone verification
4. Dharapani (1,970m): Exit checkpoint when leaving circuit

Keep waterproof copies:

• Store in ziplock bag
• Have copies accessible (not buried in pack)
• Guide typically carries originals; trekkers carry copies

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Route-Specific Timing Recommendations

Different Manaslu route variations have slightly different optimal timing based on altitude profiles and specific challenges.

Classic Manaslu Circuit (14-16 Days)

The standard circuit crossing Larkya La Pass.

Optimal timing: October 10-25 or late April Acceptable timing: Late September, early November, April, early May Avoid: June-August, January-February

Why: The classic circuit's success depends entirely on Larkya La Pass conditions. October 10-25 offers the most reliable pass crossing weather.

Manaslu + Tsum Valley Extension (18-21 Days)

Adding the sacred Tsum Valley to the circuit.

Optimal timing: October or April-early May Acceptable timing: Late September, November Avoid: Same as classic circuit

Special considerations:

• Extra days needed: Requires 4-7 additional days
• Higher valleys: Tsum side valleys see more snow; spring may be better
• Cultural timing: Lhosar festival (February) offers unique Tsum experiences but extreme cold
• Fewer trekkers: Tsum sees 70-80% fewer people than main circuit

Manaslu Base Camp Addition (16-18 Days)

Adding Manaslu Base Camp day hike from Samagaon.

Optimal timing: October or April Acceptable timing: September, November (early) Avoid: Winter (base camp very cold), monsoon

Special considerations:

• Extra acclimatization: Base Camp at 4,800m aids Larkya La preparation
• Demanding day: 7-8 hour round trip from Samagaon
• Weather dependent: Base Camp only worthwhile in clear conditions
• Autumn better: October offers best base camp visibility; spring can be cloudy

Manaslu to Annapurna Link (20-25 Days)

Continuing from Dharapani into Annapurna Circuit.

Optimal timing: October or April-May Acceptable timing: Late September-early November Avoid: Monsoon, winter

Special considerations:

• Two passes: Larkya La (5,160m) + Thorong La (5,416m)
• Extended season: Requires 3+ weeks; limits timing flexibility
• Peak season best: October offers most reliable weather for both passes
• High fitness needed: Back-to-back high passes demand excellent conditioning

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Cultural Timing: Festivals & Ceremonies

Timing your trek to coincide with cultural festivals adds profound depth to the Manaslu experience. The Tibetan Buddhist villages of the upper valley celebrate traditional festivals that remain largely unaffected by tourism.

Major Festivals in Manaslu Region

Lhosar (Tibetan New Year)

• When: Late January or February (lunar calendar varies)
• Where: Samagaon, Samdo, Lho, Tsum Valley villages
• Duration: 3-5 days of celebrations
• Experiences: Monastery rituals, masked dances, traditional foods, prayer flag installations
• Timing challenge: Coincides with extreme winter cold
• Recommendation: Consider modified trek to Samagaon only (no pass crossing) for cultural immersion

Dashain (Nepal's Biggest Festival)

• When: September-October (lunar calendar varies; 2025: ~Oct 2-15)
• Where: Throughout Nepal, including Manaslu villages
• Duration: 15 days (main celebrations first 10 days)
• Experiences: Family gatherings, ritual sacrifices, blessings, festive foods
• Timing advantage: Coincides with peak trekking season
• Crowd impact: Peak trekking traffic during this period

Tihar (Festival of Lights)

• When: October-November (5 days after Dashain; 2025: ~Oct 17-21)
• Where: Throughout Nepal
• Duration: 5 days
• Experiences: Oil lamp lighting, special foods, Bhai Tika (brother-sister ceremony)
• Timing advantage: Excellent trekking weather continues

Monastery Ceremonies (Year-Round)

• When: Daily prayers at major monasteries
• Where: Lho Gompa, Pungyen Monastery, Ribung Gompa
• Duration: Morning and evening prayer sessions
• Experiences: Monk chants, butter lamp offerings, prayer wheels
• Timing: Any season (if monastery accessible)

Cultural Timing Strategies

For festival experiences:

1. Check lunar calendar: Dates shift yearly
2. Accept crowds: Major festivals = more trekkers
3. Book early: Festival periods fill faster
4. Build flexibility: Ceremonies may shift timing
5. Respect customs: Photography permissions, modest dress

For daily cultural immersion:

• Morning monastery visits: Best 6:00-8:00 AM for prayer sessions
• Evening gatherings: Teahouse communal time 6:00-9:00 PM
• Village interactions: Afternoons after trekking
• Festival seasons: Even without major festivals, villages celebrate local events

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Temperature Tables by Altitude & Season

Understanding how conditions change with altitude helps you pack appropriately and set realistic expectations.

Machha Khola (870m) — Lower Valley

| Month | Avg High | Avg Low | Precipitation | Conditions | |-------|----------|---------|---------------|------------| | January | 14°C | 3°C | 20mm | Cool, clear | | February | 16°C | 5°C | 25mm | Warming slowly | | March | 20°C | 9°C | 45mm | Pleasant, spring | | April | 24°C | 12°C | 70mm | Warm, occasional rain | | May | 26°C | 15°C | 110mm | Hot, humid, pre-monsoon | | June | 26°C | 17°C | 280mm | Monsoon begins, very wet | | July | 25°C | 18°C | 400mm | Peak monsoon, torrential | | August | 25°C | 18°C | 350mm | Monsoon continues | | September | 24°C | 15°C | 180mm | Monsoon ending | | October | 22°C | 13°C | 35mm | Excellent | | November | 19°C | 9°C | 15mm | Cooling, clear | | December | 16°C | 5°C | 20mm | Cold, clear |

Samagaon (3,530m) — Upper Valley, Acclimatization Base

| Month | Avg High | Avg Low | Precipitation | Conditions | |-------|----------|---------|---------------|------------| | January | -2°C | -17°C | 15mm (snow) | Extreme cold | | February | 1°C | -14°C | 20mm (snow) | Very cold | | March | 6°C | -9°C | 40mm | Cold, improving | | April | 10°C | -5°C | 65mm | Pleasant days | | May | 13°C | -2°C | 95mm | Comfortable | | June | 14°C | 1°C | 230mm | Monsoon rain/snow mix | | July | 15°C | 3°C | 360mm | Peak monsoon | | August | 14°C | 3°C | 330mm | Heavy precipitation | | September | 12°C | 0°C | 170mm | Clearing | | October | 9°C | -7°C | 30mm | Excellent, cold nights | | November | 5°C | -11°C | 12mm | Very cold, dry | | December | 1°C | -15°C | 18mm | Extreme cold |

Dharamsala/Larkya Phedi (4,460m) — Pre-Pass Camp

| Month | Avg High | Avg Low | Precipitation | Conditions | |-------|----------|---------|---------------|------------| | January | -5°C | -26°C | 12mm (snow) | Life-threatening cold | | February | -3°C | -23°C | 18mm (snow) | Extreme cold | | March | 1°C | -17°C | 35mm | Very cold | | April | 4°C | -11°C | 55mm | Cold but manageable | | May | 7°C | -7°C | 80mm | Comfortable (relatively) | | June | 9°C | -3°C | 190mm | Snow, clouds | | July | 10°C | -1°C | 300mm | Heavy snow | | August | 9°C | -1°C | 280mm | Continued snow | | September | 7°C | -5°C | 140mm | Clearing, cold | | October | 5°C | -11°C | 25mm | Cold, stable | | November | 1°C | -15°C | 10mm | Extreme cold | | December | -2°C | -20°C | 15mm (snow) | Brutal cold |

Larkya La Pass (5,160m) — Summit Conditions

| Month | Avg High | Avg Low | Precipitation | Pass Status | |-------|----------|---------|---------------|-------------| | January | -11°C | -33°C | 10mm (snow) | Impassable most days | | February | -9°C | -29°C | 15mm (snow) | Very difficult | | March | -5°C | -23°C | 30mm | Difficult, clearing late month | | April | -1°C | -17°C | 50mm | Good conditions | | May | 2°C | -13°C | 75mm | Very good early month | | June | 5°C | -8°C | 170mm | Dangerous, wet snow | | July | 6°C | -5°C | 270mm | Impassable, avalanche danger | | August | 5°C | -6°C | 250mm | Extremely dangerous | | September | 3°C | -9°C | 130mm | Good late month | | October | 1°C | -15°C | 20mm | Excellent | | November | -3°C | -20°C | 8mm | Excellent early, brutal late | | December | -7°C | -25°C | 12mm (snow) | Impassable most days |

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What to Pack by Season

Gear requirements shift significantly based on when you trek. Here's season-specific packing guidance.

Autumn (September-November) Packing

Sleeping bag:

• September: -15°C rated
• October: -15°C to -20°C rated
• November: -20°C to -25°C rated (essential for late November)

Insulation:

• Medium-weight down jacket (sufficient for Sept-Oct)
• Heavy down jacket for November
• Multiple fleece layers

Rain gear:

• Light rain jacket (September—monsoon remnants possible)
• Minimal rain gear (October-November—very dry)

Sun protection:

• Critical—intense autumn sun, dry air
• High SPF sunscreen (50+)
• Lip balm with SPF (lips crack badly)
• Glacier glasses (UV protection essential)

Autumn-specific items:

• Warmer hat and gloves than spring (especially November)
• Moisturizer (extremely dry air causes skin cracking)
• Insulated water bottle cover (freezing nights)
• Hand warmers (useful for November pass crossing)

Spring (March-May) Packing

Sleeping bag:

• March: -15°C to -20°C rated
• April: -10°C to -15°C rated
• May: -10°C rated (warmest nights)

Insulation:

• Lightweight to medium down jacket
• Layering system (temperatures vary widely day to night)

Rain gear:

• Essential—afternoon showers common
• Waterproof jacket and pants (breathable)
• Waterproof pack cover
• Quick-dry towel

Sun protection:

• High priority—strong spring UV
• Sunscreen 50+
• Sunglasses with UV protection

Spring-specific items:

• Rain jacket more important than autumn
• Lighter gloves acceptable (except early March)
• Extra socks (trails can be wet from afternoon showers)
• Waterproof stuff sacks for pack organization

Winter (December-February) Packing

Only if you're experienced and committed:

Sleeping bag:

• -30°C rated minimum (not optional)
• -35°C better for January
• Vapor barrier liner recommended

Insulation:

• Expedition-weight down jacket (8,000m grade)
• Multiple insulation layers
• Down pants for extreme cold camps

Extreme cold protection:

• Balaclava (full face coverage)
• Expedition mittens + liner gloves
• Insulated mountaineering boots (-40°C rated)
• Hand and toe warmers (multiple sets)
• Insulated water bottle covers (water freezes instantly)

Winter-specific items:

• Four-season tent (teahouse backup—some closed)
• Neoprene face mask
• Extra batteries (cold drains electronics)
• Chemical warmers for camera batteries
• Emergency bivy bag

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Frequently Asked Questions

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Final Recommendations: Choosing Your Window

After analyzing all factors, here are definitive recommendations by trekker type:

For First-Time Manaslu Circuit Trekkers

Go in October 10-25 or late April (Apr 20-30). You'll get the most reliable weather, safest pass conditions, and full infrastructure support. October offers superior visibility; April offers warmer comfort. Both provide excellent success rates for first-timers.

For Experienced Trekkers Seeking Solitude

Go in late September (Sept 20-30) or mid-November (Nov 11-20). You'll experience 60-70% fewer people, excellent weather (with appropriate cold preparation for November), and a more authentic remote experience. The tradeoff is colder nights (November) or possible early-month weather instability (September).

For Budget-Conscious Trekkers

Go in March or early December. Prices drop 20-25%, permit demand is lower, and negotiation is more possible. Early December requires serious cold-weather preparation; March is more accessible. The tradeoff is colder conditions and some service limitations compared to peak season.

For Photographers

Go in October 15-30 or early November. Visibility peaks in this window, with crystal-clear air, pristine mountain views, and dramatic lighting. November's lower crowds make unobstructed compositions easier. Bring cold-weather protection for equipment.

For Warmth-Prioritizing Trekkers

Go in late April or early May (May 1-10). These periods offer the warmest temperatures, most comfortable high-altitude nights, and pleasant daytime trekking. The tradeoff is afternoon cloud buildup and reduced visibility compared to autumn. Ideal for cold-sensitive trekkers or first high-altitude experiences.

For Cultural Immersion Seekers

Go during Dashain (early October) or Lhosar (late February). Dashain coincides with excellent trekking weather; Lhosar requires accepting extreme cold. For Lhosar, consider modified trek to Samagaon only (no pass crossing) to experience festival without winter pass risks.

For Advanced Routes (Tsum Valley, Base Camp Add-ons)

Go in October or April. These months provide the most reliable extended-trek weather. Tsum Valley benefits from October's clarity; Base Camp side trip works best when Samagaon weather is stable (April-October).

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Bridge Block: Planning Your Perfectly-Timed Manaslu Trek

Understanding timing is crucial, but equally important is choosing a verified trekking agency that prioritizes safety regardless of season and can advise on optimal timing for your specific needs.

Essential Planning Resources

• Manaslu Circuit Trek — Complete Route Guide
• Compare verified operators for Manaslu Circuit
• Nepal trekking permits explained
• Best time to trek Nepal — Overview
• Manaslu Region Hub

Safety and Preparation

• Altitude sickness: Signs, prevention & turnaround rules
• Acclimatization best practices for Nepal treks
• Emergency evacuation in Nepal: How it works
• Teahouse trek safety checklist

Seasonal Comparisons

• Best time to trek Everest region
• Trekking Nepal in October
• Trekking Nepal in April
• Trekking Nepal in November

Alternative Routes

• Everest Base Camp trek
• Annapurna Circuit trek
• Annapurna Base Camp trek
• Langtang Valley trek
• Gokyo Lakes trek

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Conclusion: The Right Time Makes All the Difference

The Manaslu Circuit offers one of Nepal's most rewarding trekking experiences—but only if you time it correctly. The difference between a successful, safe, memorable trek and a dangerous, disappointing ordeal often comes down to choosing the right month and week for your departure.

Key takeaways:

1. October 10-25 is the gold standard for reliability, visibility, and overall conditions
2. Late September and mid-November offer near-peak conditions with far fewer crowds
3. April-early May provides the warmest, most comfortable trekking
4. Monsoon (June-August) is genuinely dangerous—not just unpleasant, but life-threatening
5. Winter (January-February) requires expedition-grade preparation and should be avoided by most
6. Larkya La Pass conditions determine success—timing around optimal pass weather is essential

The Manaslu Circuit rewards those who respect its seasonal rhythms. Choose your timing wisely, prepare appropriately for the conditions you'll face, maintain flexibility for weather variations, and you'll experience one of the Himalayan world's most spectacular journeys.

The mountains will wait. Trek them when conditions favor success, safety, and the profound experience this magnificent circuit deserves.

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This guide is maintained by HimalayanNepal's editorial team using data from Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Manaslu Conservation Area Project, local guide networks, and verified agency reports. Weather data represents historical averages; actual conditions vary year to year. Last updated January 2025.

Have questions about timing your specific Manaslu trek? Contact our editorial team for personalized guidance based on your priorities, experience level, and schedule constraints.